After a weather-delayed, frenetic race to the finish at the Wyndham Championship, the PGA Tour heads to Memphis for the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs. The FedEx St. Jude Championship has undergone a number of structural changes over the years, and this will be its third year as the FedEx Cup opener. The field has been shortened to just 70 players, and the event will no longer feature a cut. At week’s end, the top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings will advance to the BMW Championship and continue their season at Castle Pines in Colorado.
TPC Southwind is the host venue this week, and the Ron Pritchard design is a standard par 72, measuring 7,233 yards on the scorecard. It features Bermudagrass greens and rough, and typically ranks in the middle of the pack in scoring difficulty. Players will need to avoid water hazards off the tee and control their middle irons into small greens, and it has traditionally been a golf course that has played into the hands of elite iron players. The last two champions, Will Zalatoris and Lucas Glover, both entered the event in excellent approach form, and I would expect that trend to continue this week. Let’s dive into the slate.
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$10,000 range
Play: Collin Morikawa, $10,000:
Despite a disappointing 24th-place finish at the Olympics, Collin Morikawa is coming off his best approach performance of the season at Le Golf National. The two-time major winner has now gained over six strokes on approach in back-to-back starts, and we are beginning to see peak Morikawa iron play once again. Now he travels to a golf course where he has finished top 15 in his past two appearances, and which heavily accentuates accuracy and middle iron play. This is the perfect venue for Morikawa to capture his first victory of 2024.
Fade: Ludvig Aberg, $10,200:
David Cannon
While the $10,000 range is filled with all excellent options, Ludvig Aberg is my least favorite of the bunch. Aberg will be making his first appearance at TPC Southwind, and he is coming off an 18th-place finish at the Olympics where he lost strokes in all categories outside of approach play. Ludvig’s greatest weapon, his driver, has not been producing at typical levels, which is enough reason for me to favor other options at the top of the board.
$9,000 range
Play: Patrick Cantlay, $9,700:
Pedro Salado
While ultimately coming up just short to Lucas Glover in a playoff last year, TPC Southwind has been a great spot for Patrick Cantlay. Always at his best in the FedEx Cup playoffs, Cantlay has been rounding into form over his last few tournaments. The 32-year-old is coming off a top-25 finish at the Open Championship where he gained over eight strokes ball-striking, and prior to that, he recorded back-to-back top-fives at the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship. I expect Cantlay to continue his strong play in the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Fade: Corey Conners, $9,100:
I love Corey Conners’ fit at TPC Southwind, but I have a difficult time justifying this price tag. I expected Conners to fit nicely into the $8,000 range this week, but this is a rather hefty step up in class. I’m not sold on Conners’ win equity in this field, and I would rather anchor my lineup with players that possess more high-end upside.
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Watch the below video for our favorite bets and players we're fading for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship:
$8,000 range
Play: Tom Kim, $8,900:
Andrew Redington
Recent approach play is a huge indicator of success at TPC Southwind, and Tom Kim is coming off an eighth-place finish at the Olympics where he gained 7.9 strokes on approach. Now Kim returns to a golf course where he has finished top-25 in his last two appearances, and he has already recorded a victory on similarly Southeastern Bermuda course at the Wyndham Championship.
Fade: Justin Thomas, $8,400:
While Justin Thomas boasts incredibly strong course history at TPC Southwind, he has been a difficult man to trust in 2024. While there have been flashes of brilliance, Thomas still remains an incredibly unreliable driver of the ball and a below average putter. Ranking nearly dead last in this field in driving accuracy, I worry about the two-time major winner’s ability to avoid the big number at TPC Southwind.
$7,000 range
Play: Sepp Straka, $7,400:
Warren Little
I always have interest in Sepp Straka on golf courses with a high missed fairway penalty that heavily emphasize middle iron approach play, and TPC Southwind falls firmly in that bucket. Straka lost in a playoff at TPC Southwind in 2022, and he is coming off a performance at the Olympics where he gained over five strokes on approach.
Fade: Max Homa, $7,500:
After a banner year in 2023, Max Homa has regressed significantly this year and has failed to contend since the Masters. Much of Homa’s issues this year have been due to shaky driving accuracy and overall approach play, two skills that are heavily accentuated at TPC Southwind. Until Homa displays more consistent ball-striking, this is an easy pass.
$6,000 range
Play: Ben Griffin, $6,600:
Kevin C. Cox
Ben Griffin was a key piece to our success last week at the Wyndham Championship, and after he gained over eight strokes on approach en route to a top-10 finish, I see no reason to hop off now. Similar to Sedgefield, TPC Southwind also heavily accentuates middle iron play and features similar agronomy. Outside of his great approach, Ben Griffin also ranks first in this field in pure Bermudagrass putting over the past three years.
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Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. He hosts Inside Golf, a twice weekly podcast focused on the PGA Tour, betting, daily fantasy, golf course architecture, and interviews, as part of the BlueWire podcast network. As well as contributing to Golf Digest, Andy is also a data analyst and writer for Run Pure Sports, where he covers PGA Tour betting and daily fantasy. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports
